As cases plunge again, are we past peak of 3rd wave?

Number of new infections drops for 5th day in a row

COVID experts last night said the UK may have passed the peak of the third wave – after the number of new cases dropped for the fifth day in a row.

A dramatic fall in positive tests reported – down from 49,000 last Sunday to 29,173 yesterday – adds to evidence the country may be emerging from the current wave.

It is the first time cases have fallen below 30,000 since July 6, with daily deaths standing at 28 – up three on the previous Sunday. The last five-day run of falling numbers was in February, shortly after the UK passed the peak of the winter wave.

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: ‘This is looking like a reassuring trend, after five days of these falling numbers.

‘The fall is much more dramatic than expected.

‘There have been several experts warning of a disaster, but these figures strongly suggest otherwise.

‘It’s too early to see any signal in the data from Freedom Day, which may increase transmission, but this data suggests that we are coming out of this wave. It’s unlikely there will be any further surge from Freedom Day – if there is, it is likely only to be minor, and to probably last a matter of days.’

The rise in cases at the start of the month has been partially attributed to the Euro 2020 football tournament, which may have seen more people getting together to watch matches in their homes.

There is also evidence the vaccines are doing their job and the rise in infections driven by the more transmissible Delta variant may be levelling off. The seven-day average for daily Covid infections, which smooths out daily infections to show the underlying trend, also shows a recent fall, but experts have cautioned that some of the apparent fall in cases could reflect fewer schoolchildren being tested during the summer holidays.

Hopes that the virus may be in retreat have been boosted by recent good weather, which has meant fewer gatherings inside.

Dr Simon Clarke, from the University of Reading, said: ‘We could now be starting to come out of this wave, based on these case numbers. It may be that, if the Euros affected case numbers from people mixing, we are now returning to the level of cases we would have had without the tournament.

‘It is important to be cautious, because the schools being on holiday has taken a lot of the heat out of this, and there is not yet data from July 19, but we could well be seeing the end of significant numbers of infections and be past the worst of this.

‘We need data on how well the vaccines are preventing transmission to be better able to judge this.’

The UK recorded 31,795 new cases on Saturday, which represented a fall of almost 5,000 from the previous day.

Public Health England yesterday said 46,563,452 people had received a first dose of a Covid vaccine, while 37,160,659 had received a second dose.

‘We could be past the worst of this’